From long shots to favorites: How Matthew Stafford and Jonathan Taylor have reshaped the MVP race

By Canadian Press on November 12, 2025.

As the NFL season heads deep into the second half the MVP race has been shaken up thanks in large part to some record-threatening performances from players like Matthew Stafford and Jonathan Taylor, and the emergence of Drake Maye.

Stafford became the betting favorite to win the AP NFL MVP this week, according to BetMGM, after he threw four more touchdown passes in the Los Angeles Rams’ 42-26 win over San Francisco on Sunday. Stafford became the first player ever with at least four TD passes and no interceptions in three straight games.

More than 15 players had better opening odds at BetMGM to win the MVP award than Stafford, who now is the favorite at plus-275 after a six-game stretch with 20 touchdowns and no interceptions.

Stafford, who turns 38 in February, could become the oldest player to win his first MVP, and the third oldest to win overall, trailing only 40-year-old Tom Brady in 2017, and Aaron Rodgers, who won in 2021 after turning 38 that season.

Taylor’s candidacy is even more surprising with more than 40 players opening with better odds as he tries to become the first running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012 to take home the award.

Taylor is currently tied with two-time winner Patrick Mahomes for the third best odds after helping Indianapolis improve to 8-2, rushing for 244 yards and three TDs in a win over Atlanta on Sunday.

That made Taylor the fourth player ever with multiple games with at least 200 yards rushing and three TD runs, joining Jim Brown, Adrian Peterson and Derrick Henry.

Taylor’s 17 touchdowns overall are tied for the third most by any player in his team’s first 10 games of the season, trailing only LaDainian Tomlinson’s 22 in 2006 and Shaun Alexander’s 19 in 2005. Both those players went on to win MVP those seasons, with Alexander setting an NFL record with 28 touchdowns and Tomlinson surpassing it the next season with what still is the record of 31.

New England’s Maye has also shot up in the MVP odds to second best behind Stafford after helping the Patriots get off to an 8-2 start. Maye has posted a passer rating of at least 100 in eight of his 10 starts this season and has a 113.9 mark on the season. Maye joined Mahomes and Dak Prescott as the only players age 23 or younger to have a rating of at least 100 eight times in his team’s first 10 games.

Last season’s winner, Josh Allen, has the fifth best odds followed by another unlikely candidate in Seattle’s Sam Darnold.

Darnold’s 9.92 yards per attempt are on pace to be the highest for any qualifying quarterback since Norm Van Brocklin averaged 10.1 in 1954.

If Darnold won MVP after signing with the Seahawks as a free agent in March, it would be the third time a player won the award in his first season with a team. Jim Brown won as a rookie in 1957 with Cleveland and Earl Morrall won in his first season with the Baltimore Colts in 1968.

Giants join coaching carousel

The decision by the New York Giants to fire coach Brian Daboll less than seven months after drafting quarterback Jaxson Dart in the first round is the latest entry in a trend of teams using high picks on QBs leading to quick coaching changes.

Tennessee already did it this season, firing Brian Callahan after he had just six games with No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward.

In all, there have been 35 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the past 10 drafts. With the moves by the Giants and Titans, eight of those teams fired their coach during the rookie season of the quarterback and eight more made a change before the start of the second season.

Daboll was also part of a ballyhooed class in 2022 of 10 new coaches hired. Only three of those coaches remain in the job midway through their fourth season with Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles and Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell appearing to be on solid ground at their spots, while Miami’s Mike McDaniels is in a more tenuous situation after GM Chris Grier was let go last month.

The others haven’t been so lucky.

Nathaniel Hackett was the first to go, not making it through only one season in Denver before being fired with a 4-11 record. Lovie Smith was out in Houston after one 3-13-1 campaign.

The Raiders fired Josh McDaniels midway through his second season, while Chicago’s Matt Eberflus, New Orleans’ Dennis Allen and Jacksonville’s Doug Pederson all got fired either during or after their third seasons.

Shough breaks a 44-year drought in New Orleans

The long wait for a rookie QB to win a start in New Orleans is over after 44 years.

Second-round pick Tyler Shough helped New Orleans beat Carolina on Sunday in his second career start, making him the first Saints rookie QB to win a start since Dave Wilson did it on Nov. 8, 1981, against the Rams.

New Orleans rookies had been 0-11 since then, including a loss to Shough the previous week in his first start and six by Spencer Rattler last season after Derek Carr got hurt. Danny Wuerffel lost twice in 1997, with Ian Book (2021) and Wilson (1981) having the other losses.

There had been 567 regular-season games won by rookie quarterbacks during the drought for the Saints with Chicago leading the way with 33 and 18 teams having at least 20 wins.

Only two other teams had fewer than nine wins from rookie QBs in that span with Green Bay having only three and Kansas City having one by Patrick Mahomes in Week 17 of the 2017 season.

Double returns

It was a weekend of happy returns for both Seattle and the New York Jets.

New York’s Kene Nwangwu returned a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter and 36 seconds later, Isaiah Williams brought back a punt 74 yards for a score in the Jets’ 27-20 win over Cleveland.

It marked the first time in franchise history that the Jets had a kickoff return and a punt return for TDs in the same game. No other team had done that since Baltimore on Oct. 15, 2017, against Chicago, and the last team to do it in the first quarter was the Chargers against Indianapolis on Nov. 11, 2007.

The return TDs helped the Jets win the game despite gaining only 169 yards of offense and getting no takeaways. Teams had been 0-216 in the Super Bowl era when gaining less than 175 yards and generating no takeaways in the regular season and playoffs.

Seattle also got two return touchdowns as DeMarcus Lawrence became the second player in the last 75 years to return two fumbles for TDs in the same game. Jeremy Chinn was the only other player to do it in that span in 2020 for Carolina against Minnesota.

The two defensive touchdowns helped Seattle score 38 points in the first half, marking the third time this season the Seahawks had at least 31 points before halftime.

Seattle became the fourth team ever with at least three games in a season with more than 30 points in the first half with the Rams the last team to do it in 1980. The Raiders did it in 1968 and the Chargers in 1961.

The Seahawks had scored at least 31 points in the first half three time in 331 games in the regular season and playoffs before doing it three times in the last seven games.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

Josh Dubow, The Associated Press