July 15th, 2019

Bashing LNG misses the mark


By Lethbridge Herald Opinon on July 11, 2019.

Natural gas the ideal way to transition from coal and oil

Brad Hayes

ADJUNCT PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA

Two articles published in the Globe and Mail recently might make supporters of Canadian LNG pause and wonder whether they’re backing the right horse.

Marc Lee, a senior economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA), wrote an opinion column entitled “LNG’s big lie,” and a couple of days later, the Globe published a Canadian Press story headlined “Liquefied natural-gas boom is undermining climate-change action.”

The CP story was distributed in several other media outlets, including CBC News online, which promoted the story as “Clean natural gas is actually the new coal, report says.”

What are we to make of this? Is natural gas not the cleanest fossil fuel, and the ideal way to power humanity through the decades-long transition from coal and oil to alternative energy sources?

Not according to these stories.

Should we believe them?

Let’s start with the Canadian Press story. They picked up a report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which they call “an international non-governmental organization that catalogues fossil-fuel infrastructure.” That’s part of the Wikipedia definition – but CP omitted the last part, which reads “in support of fossil fuel phase-out.”

GEM recently changed its name from CoalSwarm and is affiliated with Earth Island Institute, allowing it to receive tax-deductible donations.

So to be clear, this is not an impartial scientific report by a respected research institution, this is an advocacy piece by an organization dedicated to eliminating fossil fuels, including natural gas.

Digging into the numbers, we read “there are projects in development globally that by 2030 would increase natural gas supply to 806 million tonnes above what they are now” and “35 per cent is in Canada.” The GEM report shows Canada to have 281.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of export terminal capacity in “pre-construction,” with an expected capital outlay of $410 billion.

That’s not right.

LNG Canada is actually the only Canadian project with regulatory approval and investment commitments – and it plans to produce 14 mtpa beginning in 2024, at a capital cost of $40 billion. The other projects in the works – Woodfibre (B.C.), Saguenay (Quebec) and Goldboro (Nova Scotia) – are smaller, still awaiting approvals and investment decisions, and are unlikely to be onstream before 2025. Other projects have been conceptualized but no plans are in place.

Where do GEM’s 281.6 mtpa and $410 billion numbers come from?

They don’t say and they don’t tell us what “pre-construction” means.

Looking at GEM’s worldwide numbers, they show only 45.5 mtpa of LNG export capacity actually under construction. The 806 mtpa number in the story is in “pre-construction” projects, including Canada’s 281.6 mtpa and 318.4 mtpa in the U.S. In fact, these numbers are grossly inflated and unrealistic – many LNG export and import projects have been proposed but relatively few get built. Natural gas supply is most certainly not going to “triple by 2030,” as the story tells us.

The other main point in the CP story is the speculation that methane “fugitive emissions” – leakage from drilling, production and transportation – are so great that the climate-warming effects of natural gas are comparable to coal.

Measurement of fugitive emissions is a contested topic these days – and the GEM report chooses to use a single controversial study that shows much higher fugitive emissions than values accepted by regulators in the U.S. and Canada. New technology is drastically reducing methane emissions and Canadian regulators have mandated 45 per cent reductions before any of our LNG projects come on stream.

What about the “big lie” story?

Lee is director of the Climate Justice Project, and works for an organization (CCPA) that “produces research and analysis for policy-makers, activists and everyday Canadians to make informed decisions and press for social change.”

Those are all very worthy sentiments but they hardly give the reader confidence that the story is a dispassionate, unbiased analysis. CCPA doesn’t like fossil fuels any more than GEM does.

Lee argues that it’s “incredibly energy intensive” to produce and transport LNG, comparing it unfavourably to coal. But he provides no numbers to back his opinion – because there are no such numbers. And he fails to recognize that LNG Canada plans to power its export facility with renewable hydropower, further reducing its energy footprint. He advances the same fugitive emission idea as the GEM study, also failing to mention the weakness of the evidence and the mitigation measures underway.

Finally, Lee repeats a nonsensical concept popular with anti-development advocates – that LNG exported to Asia would not displace coal but would be used to displace “cleaner” fuels.

Asian countries are building gas-fired generation specifically to replace coal and its associated pollution (smog, particulates and other noxious substances). They’re building renewable generation capacity, too – but it will take decades for renewables and LNG together to replace coal, so why would they replace renewables with LNG?

So should we be concerned about using LNG/natural gas as a bridge between established and future energy technologies?

No. Even opponents agree it produces less CO2 and far less real pollution when burned.

The contrived and weak arguments in these stories about LNG supply and fugitive emissions demonstrate how desperate advocacy organizations are to achieve their stated goal of eliminating fossil fuels, including natural gas.

Brad Hayes (PhD, professional geologist) is president of Petrel Robertson Consulting Ltd. in Calgary and an adjunct professor in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Alberta. Distributed by Troy Media.

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5 Responses to “Bashing LNG misses the mark”

  1. Fescue says:

    Brad Hayes, past president of the Canadian Society of Petroleum Geologists, quibbles over what LNG capacity may or may not be built in the future, and sidesteps the concerns of methane emissions from gas drilling, processing and transportation. This hardly gives the reader of his letter “confidence that the story is a dispassionate, unbiased analysis”.

    Natural gas is probably better than coal, but LNG is natural gas compressed and cooled for export by ship – why not first use the natural gas to eliminate coal-fired electricity in North America? What will happen to our natural gas prices in our homes once an energy hungry world begins to buy our LNG?

    • Dennis Bremner says:

      Yet Fescue, you huggers sidestep the concerns of Rare Earth Mining for your ALT energy development?

      • Fescue says:

        I’m not sure where you are going with this, Dennis Bremner. If you are talking about ‘mining is bad for the environment’ you are correct, but it is a truly radical position to think we can do without minerals.

        If you are talking about rare earth metals as related to magnets used in windmills, then you don’t understand what rare earth metals are. These metals are not rare per se, only low grade. China has been a major source of these metals, mainly because they have very low environmental standards in Inner Mongolia. I think a good indicator for what you are implying would be how your financial people view the rarity of rare earth metals – the ETF, REMX, for example is at a five year low, dropping from the mid $80s and is now below $15. Even with the growing installation of wind power, nobody seems to be concerned about the availability of rare earth metals for magnets, superconductors, lasers, nuclear batteries, or as catalysts for petroleum cracking.

        But it is a good sign you are beginning to embrace (even hug) environmental concerns.

  2. Another point on the bright side of using natural gas instead of coal Brad. Coal will be left in the ground for future generations to use as an energy source. Newer technology will no doubt allow for better control of pollutants from burning it. CO2 induced warming may turn out to be insignificant. Other changes to the climate system might become more important – perhaps even making higher carbon dioxide additions to the atmosphere desirable. Thanks for countering the obfuscation of those bent on promoting regressive policies aimed at taking humanity back to reliance solely on energy from the sun.

  3. prairiebreze says:

    Brad Hayes ignores the fact that LNG is made by FRACKING – a controversial process that is linked to the destruction and contamination of water and much more. IF the gas industry was honest they would call it ‘Fracked Liquid Natural Gas’ but like GMOs that will never happen unless mandated by Gov. https://thenarwhal.ca/topics/bc-lng-fracking-news-information/


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