March Madness: How to win your NCAA men’s tournament pool and a look at what history tells us

By Canadian Press on March 16, 2025.

Before we begin, a disclaimer: Your bracket will probably be a mess by Saturday.

Or by Friday. And let’s be honest, some of us will out of the running by Thursday night.

Welcome back to the world’s largest lottery, the NCAA Tournament and all of its various bracket pools that millions of people will be joining over the next few days. Some will play for fun, some for money. No matter the stakes, we encourage you to remember that you are not an expert — and even the experts didn’t know much this season.

Florida started the year ranked No. 21; the Gators are a No. 1 seed for the tournament. St. John’s was unranked; Rick Pitino’s club is a No. 2 seed. North Carolina was No. 9 in the AP preseason poll; the Tar Heels barely got into the field and left a bunch of analysts angry about it happening.

Before we begin trying to figure out who’ll win this thing, a few policies:

Avoid the No. 5 seeds

Sorry, Oregon, Michigan, Clemson and Memphis. Going back to 1979, when the full field for the NCAA men’s tournament was seeded for the first time. there has never been a No. 5 seed that has won the national championship.

Weirdly, this rule also holds true in the NBA — all the No. 5 seeds there over the years have all fallen short of the title as well.

No double-digit loss teams

Only three teams in tournament history — N.C. State in 1983, Villanova in 1985 and Kansas in 1988 — entered the NCAAs with at least 10 losses and went on to win the title.

So, again, our apologies to Creighton, Texas A&M, St. Francis, Alabama State, Ole Miss, North Carolina, Marquette, Bryant, American, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi State, Baylor, Arizona, Vanderbilt, SIU Edwardsville, Georgia, Purdue, Illinois, Kentucky, Troy, UCLA, Wofford, Norfolk State, UConn, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas and Omaha. History that says you won’t win it all.

A surprise team will make the Final Four

Upsets are going to happen. Hence, the Madness part of March.

If recent form holds, there’s going to be a surprise team — or two, or three even — in the Final Four. There was a No. 11 seed there last year. There were two 5 seeds and a 9 seed there in 2023. An 8 seed the year before that. An 11 seed the year before that.

And it’s not just a recent phenomenon, either. From 2011 through 2018, there were nine instances of teams being a 7 seed or higher making the Final Four — three No. 7 seeds, two No. 11 seeds, two No. 8 seeds, a No. 9 and a No. 10 all headed to the national semifinals in that span.

Thursday and Friday might be bonkers

Everyone knows the 5 vs. 12 games lead to upsets. But those aren’t the only ones.

There were 11 wins by teams seeded No. 9 through No. 12 last year in the round of 64 — with two No. 12s, a No. 13 and a No. 14 among them in 2024.

Remember, there have been nine instances of a No. 15 or a No. 16 seed getting to Round 2 since 2012. It’s not impossible anymore.

But in the end …

Don’t overthink this. The really good teams are really good for a reason. In the last 45 years, 41 eventual champions have been seeded No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3. Will they all get to San Antonio? Probably not. But one or two, at minimum, probably will get there.

To win your pool, you’ve got to hit the upsets. Pool winners are made there. But if you get to the Final Four on your sheet of paper (or more likely, your screen) and see a 9 seed, two 11 seeds and a 14 seed as the last ones standing, perhaps start over.

Round of 64 picks

South: Auburn, Louisville, Michigan, Yale, Ole Miss, Iowa State, New Mexico, Michigan State.

East: Duke, Mississippi State, Liberty, Akron, BYU, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Alabama.

Midwest: Houston, Gonzaga, McNeese, High Point, Illinois, Kentucky, UCLA, Tennessee.

West: Florida, UConn, Memphis, Maryland, Drake, UNC Wilmington, Arkansas, St. John’s.

Round of 32 picks

South: Auburn, Michigan, Iowa State, Michigan State.

East: Duke, Akron, BYU, Alabama.

Midwest: Gonzaga, McNeese, Kentucky, Tennessee.

West: Florida, Maryland, Drake, St. John’s.

Regional semifinal picks

South: Michigan, Michigan State.

East: Duke, Alabama.

Midwest: Gonzaga, Tennessee.

West: Florida, St. John’s.

Regional final picks

South: Dusty May going back to the Final Four in Year 1 at Michigan would be an incredible story, but Michigan State — Tom Izzo in March gets a slight nod.

East: If Cooper Flagg is healthy, Duke should be fine.

Midwest: Mark Few is an absolute legend. Never sleep on the Zags … Gonzaga in an upset.

West: Florida has been as good as anyone all season long. But Rick Pitino, it just feels like his year … St. John’s.

The Final Four

This leaves us with Michigan State vs. St. John’s, Duke vs. Gonzaga.

Michigan State vs. Duke in the final.

We’re all-in on Cooper Flagg being healthy here … Duke wins it all.

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AP March Madness: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness

Tim Reynolds, The Associated Press