Two QBs, two comebacks: How Allen and McCarthy stunned the NFL

By Canadian Press on September 10, 2025.

The opening weekend of the NFL season was capped by a pair of unlikely comebacks led by the reigning MVP and a quarterback making his NFL debut.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills overcame a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Baltimore in one of the most improbable comebacks in recent history on Sunday night.

J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings followed that up a night later when McCarthy became the first QB in four decades to erase a 10-point hole in the fourth quarter and win in his NFL debut.

A look deeper inside the numbers shows how surprising both games truly were.

Let’s start with McCarthy and the Vikings. After sitting out his rookie year with a knee injury, McCarthy struggled in the first three quarters of his debut before throwing two TD passes and running for another in the fourth quarter of a 27-24 win.

McCarthy became the fifth player since the merger and first since Cam Newton in 2011 to throw for at least two TD passes and run for one in his NFL debut. He was the only one to do that in the fourth quarter.

He also became the first QB since Hall of Famer Steve Young in 1985 to overcome a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter and win in his debut and the first to do it on the road.

Allen staged a memorable comeback against the Ravens as the Bills had just a 1.1% win probability midway through the fourth quarter when they trailed 40-25, according to the NFL’s NextGen Stats model. That was the most improbable comeback ever for Allen and the 13th most over the last decade.

Buffalo became the fourth team since at least 2000 to win a game they trailed by at least 15 points in the final 4:10 to play and the first to do it in regulation.

Allen has won two of his last four regular-season games when he threw a pass despite Buffalo allowing at least 40 points with the Bills beating Detroit 48-42 in Week 15 last season. There have been only 44 other games in NFL history won by a team that allowed at least 40 points with Fran Tarkenton the only QB with more wins in that scenario with three.

The Ravens became the fourth team to lose an opener when scoring at least 40 points in what is their latest in a string of late-game collapses.

Baltimore’s 17 losses after leading by double digits in the second half under coach John Harbaugh are the most of any team since he was hired in 2008. He joined Weeb Ewbank and Marion Campbell as the only coaches ever to lose twice when leading by at least 15 points at the start of the fourth quarter with the other coming in Week 2 of the 2018 season against Miami.

Lamar Jackson averaged at least 11 yards per pass and rush in both of those games — something no other player has done even once in a game with at least six carries and 18 passes.

Dazzling QB debuts

McCarthy wasn’t the only quarterback who had an impressive first start with a new team, with Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith and Justin Fields all faring well.

Rodgers threw for 244 yards and four TDs with no interceptions in a 34-32 win over his former team, the New York Jets. No other QB in the Super Bowl era has hit those marks in his debut for a team. Rodgers also tied Tom Brady with his 28th career game with at least four TD passes and no interceptions.

Fields ended up on the losing side against Rodgers and the Steelers but had one of the best games of his young career, throwing for 218 yards and one TD and rushing for two touchdowns. The only other Jets players ever with at least two TD runs and a TD pass in the same game are Josh McCown (2017 vs. the Chiefs) and Mark Sanchez (2011 vs. the Chiefs).

Jones began his tenure in Indianapolis by running for two touchdowns, throwing another and leading the Colts to scores on all seven possessions in a 33-8 win over Miami. Indianapolis was the first team in at least 47 years to score on every offensive possession of a game — although a handful of other teams have done it excluding kneel down drives at the end of a half or game.

Smith completed 70.6% of his passes and threw for 362 yards — the most ever by a Raiders QB in his first start with the team — as Las Vegas beat New England 20-13.

Super Bowl rematch

For the third straight season there will be a Super Bowl rematch in the regular season with Philadelphia visiting Kansas City on Sunday just over seven months after the Eagles beat the Chiefs 40-22.

These are becoming much more common with the addition of the 17th game which has meant that first-place teams face two of the four division winners in the other conference each season instead of one of four. There were no rematches for 16 straight seasons from 1998-2013.

The Super Bowl winner has had the upper hand in the rematches, winning seven of the 10 that have been held since the AFL and NFL merged in 1970. The Chiefs have split the past two, losing to the Eagles in 2023 and beating the San Francisco 49ers last season.

The Chiefs come into this game in unfamiliar territory as they are home underdogs for just the second time ever with Patrick Mahomes starting at QB. BetMGM has listed the Eagles as a 1-point favorite. Kansas City lost 24-20 to Buffalo as 2 1/2-point underdogs in 2022.

Kansas City is also alone in last place in the AFC West after losing the opener to the Los Angeles Chargers and with Denver and Las Vegas winning their first games. The only other time in the past 10 seasons when the Chiefs were alone in last place after any week came in 2021. It happened that season after Week 5 when Kansas City was 2-3, one game behind the Raiders and Broncos and two behind the Chargers.

49ers kick Moody to the curb

Jake Moody’s failed tenure with the San Francisco 49ers showed why so few teams are willing to use a high draft pick on a kicker.

The Niners picked Moody 99th overall in 2023 for the highest pick used on a kicker since Roberto Aguayo went 59th to Tampa Bay in 2016. San Francisco hoped Moody would solidify the kicking spot for years to come but his tenure didn’t end up much better than Aguayo’s with the Bucs.

The 49ers cut ties with Moody one game into his third season after he missed two short tries against Seattle. He was 12 for 23 on field goals in his last 10 games with one other miss on an extra point.

Aguayo lasted only one season in Tampa Bay, making just 71% of his kicks, and never appeared in another NFL game.

Drafting kickers is never a sure bet. Over the last 10 seasons, there have been 66 kickers who attempted at least 30 field goals. Five of the eight who made less than 77% of their kicks were drafted in the top 175, while 18 of the 24 who made at least 85% were undrafted.

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Inside the Numbers dives into NFL statistics, streaks and trends each week. For more Inside the Numbers, head here.

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Josh Dubow, The Associated Press