Separatists gain ground in new poll
By Lethbridge Herald on September 27, 2025.
Alexandra Noad
Lethbridge Herald
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter
According to a survey by Cardinal Research on 2,626 randomly selected voters shows the separatist Republican Party of Alberta (RPA) in third place behind the UCP and NPD respectively.
The Cardinal Research website says the RPA is cutting into the UCP vote share in rural Alberta while leapfrogging over both the Liberal Party of Alberta and the newly renamed Alberta Progressive Conservative party.
Cameron Davies, leader of the RPA, says this is the first time the party has been included in a survey, and its numbers are a sign of optimism.
“What it shows is our message is resonating with Albertans, we’re getting out there, we’re doing the work…we’re talking to Albertans about the issues that matter to them.”
How those numbers would translate into actual votes, however, is up for debate. Trevor Harrison, a retired professor of political sociology at the University of Lethbridge, points out that the survey of 2,000 Albertans isn’t the best predictor of voter behaviour, especially in the event of separation.
“There’s always a percentage of people in the province who are disgruntled and would like some idea of separating and having their own way, but it still is a pretty small percentage.”
Both Harrison and Davies agree that the UCP’s Alberta Next town halls have contributed to the ideology of separatism, and both pointed out that blaming Ottawa isn’t the answer.
Davies says the nine demands the UCP made to the federal government don’t actually cover the constitutional inequalities Alberta is facing, but the conversations being brought up are raising awareness of the issues and sparking conversations.
“There’s an increased awareness and certainly the conversation on Albertan Independence has had more people take a closer look that and I think that’s a positive.”
Harrison points out there is a major flaw in the Alberta Next meetings because it’s impossible for Alberta to have sovereignty while still being a part of Canada.
“Effectively what (the UCP) are really saying is ‘we want to be our own country because you can’t be sovereign at hand within a united country.’”
Separatist movements have received a lot of pushback from Indigenous communities due to their treaties with the Crown, which were signed prior to Alberta becoming a province. Davies says the opposition is coming from is a loud minority of mostly chiefs, who receive money from Ottawa.
“What you don’t hear and what you don’t see, are the everyday Albertan First Nations who don’t see the benefit of staying within Canada. They understand the abusive and toxic relationship with not only the crown, but also with Ottawa, and they see an opportunity within an independent Alberta to finally have a seat at the table and be treated as every other Albertan is treated.”
If a referendum were to occur, the ARP would then negotiate with Ottawa regarding the Treaty lands, says Davies.
Harrison says it’s much more complicated than just negotiating with the Crown about the land.
“One of the big (complications of separating) is certainly with the treaties…they were signed with Canada, not with Alberta, so if Alberta can imagine being separate, does that mean some of the Indigenous nations of the province can also imagine being separate (from Alberta)?”
18-17
Commons sense will show those who use it, that Alberta will never separate from Confederation. Many will sit around the coffee table and speak it, some will even take a survey stating they support it, but many of those will not put their name and address on a petition for a referendum asking if Alberta should separate. I am not worried because I have trust in Albertans to make the right choice!
The alarmists and doom speakers will try to use it as political fodder to gain more support for their parties, but at the end of the day . . . common sense will prevail!
When earlier surveys showed numbers as high as 36% who wanted to separate and a considerable amount of pressure was put on the Premier to discuss it . . . in a democracy, it was only fair to leadership to allow the people to answer. We rarely see this!
I am not a supporter of separation from Confederation! I do respect the Premier for putting the question to the people! I do not agree with everything the Premier is doing, but know there are worse choices in government!
Many oppose even discussing the topic . . . the same ones who demand free speech, as long as that free speech isn’t against them. They freely attack good people with mounds of disinformation, yet demand we respect them and they have their ‘free speech’.
Well . . . there are some, whom I completely disagree with, who want to separate . . . in a free and democratic society they have that right!
In the end, I have faith in Albertans to use common sense!
For all intents and purposes the UCP is also a separatist party based on their actions and words supporting the separatists. However, I doubt the majority of members both conservative parties would sign off on leaving Canada. I also agree that it is highly unlikely we will ever separate.