Fact File: No evidence of trans shooter ‘epidemic’ in Canada, U.S.
By Canadian Press on February 12, 2026.
Social media posts claiming a “pattern” or “epidemic” of transgender mass shooters spread online after a fatal shooting in Tumbler Ridge, B.C., this week. Transgender people do not disproportionately commit mass shootings, and in fact represent one per cent or less of all shootings, according to two U.S. databases. Statistics Canada does not track the gender identity of people accused or charged in gun-related crime, but there is no indication any of Canada’s previous mass shooters identified as transgender or non-binary.
THE CLAIM
A mass shooting that devastated the small British Columbia community of Tumbler Ridge sparked a false online narrative about an “epidemic” of transgender mass shooters and their supposed overrepresentation as perpetrators of violent crime.
During a press conference Wednesday, B.C. RCMP said the shooter, 18-year-old Jesse Van Rootselaar, was assigned male at birth but began transitioning about six years ago and identified as female “both socially and publicly.”
Before police confirmed the shooter’s identity, speculation they might be transgender gained traction on social media.
In a post to the X platform Tuesday, B.C. Independent MLA Tara Armstrong wrote that “there is an epidemic of transgender violence spreading across the West.”
Armstrong claimed the Tumbler Ridge shooting and five recent mass shootings in the United States represented a “pattern” of transgender violence.
On Wednesday, Elon Musk shared and commented on a graphic on X that appeared to claim transgender people disproportionately commit fatal mass shootings compared to other demographics.
THE FACTS
The available data on mass shooters is mostly American, and the way researchers define a “mass shooting” varies, meaning it’s hard to pin down an exact number of transgender shooters.
Statistics Canada tracks the gender of people accused and charged in gun-related crime, but it does not include a person’s gender identity.
There are no mass shooter databases in Canada, where such events are rare.
James Densley, co-founder of the Violence Prevention Project, which manages a database tracking mass shootings in the U.S., said transgender perpetrators represent a “handful of cases” compared to the hundreds of shootings that occur annually in the U.S.
The project’s database includes mass shootings with four or more victims killed in a public place. By that metric, the project identified only one case involving a transgender shooter that happened in Nashville in 2023.
Of the 201 mass shooters in the database, its single transgender perpetrator represents half a per cent of all shootings.
“Transgender perpetrators are under-represented in the data, not overrepresented,” Densley said.
The Gun Violence Archive runs a similar U.S. mass shooting database, and founding director Mark Bryant said it identified seven transgender mass shooters since it began tracking in 2013.
“The reality is, seven out of 4000 (mass shootings) is a very small number,” Bryant said, adding that transgender people accounted for no more than one per cent of mass shootings in the last decade, according to the database.
According to Statistics Canada, transgender and non-binary people over the age of 15 represent 0.33 per cent of the population. In the U.S. they represent about one per cent of the population.
“Associating an entire marginalized group with mass violence based on a statistically negligible number of cases has a long and ugly history,” Densley said. “In each case, the perceived pattern said more about the politics of the moment than about any actual causal relationship.”
Data shows the majority of mass shooters are overwhelmingly are cisgender men.
Aaron Devor, a sociology professor and chair in transgender studies at the University of Victoria, said transgender people are more likely to be the victims of murder and other crimes than the perpetrators.
“Anything that we do have data on shows that transgender people are a very very tiny minority among those who commit crimes, and they’re a very tiny tiny minority in society in general,” he said.
Devor added there is no indication any of Canada’s previous mass shooters identified as transgender or non-binary.
“To paint the very small population of transgender people in Canada with one brush based on what one very, very troubled person did is unfair,” Devor said. “I actually believe that most Canadians do not fall for the rhetoric that we’re hearing that tries to blame mass shootings in general on transgender people. I think most Canadians are allies of transgender people and are bright enough to see the fallacy in those claims.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 12, 2026.
Marissa Birnie, The Canadian Press
30-29
Looking at US stats, the representation of transgender shootings is very low, but it supports what I believe is needed in those who have chosen sex changes in their young lives . . . a support system in place for those how may be suffering from mental health issues who thought a sex change would magically make life better. Although the percentages are low also for those who may decide life would be better by doing so, there is a need for better mental health services to support them.
It is clear this person has had issues with their mental health, due to the repeated police responses that caused police to believe they had issues in the past . . . and that is a factor we see in more mass shootings, than transgender issues . . . mental health!
Many of the mass shootings in the US can be attributed to poor mental health issues, and in Canada as well!
I would ask how this person gained access to the guns after their own had been removed by police and who didn’t store their weapons properly so this person gained access.
As responsible gun owners, we have a responsibility to make sure all weapons are stored securely to prevent theft or others gaining access!
The responsible gun owners in Canada do so and they respect their weapons and their right to be able to own them.
The criminals get as many guns as they want, smuggled across the border from the US . . . assault rifles, long range and medium range sniper rifles, hand guns, whatever they can get, including hand grenades!
All the gun controls Canada can put into legislation will not stop the illegal gun trade, only increase it!
It is very sad that we see people who desperately need mental health treatment not have access to it is a world that is so troubled and stressful!
I do pray for the families who suffered from this sad event that they will find peace at some point! It is such a waste!
We need to re-focus our priorities, especially at a time when budgets will be cut due to global economic and security issues . . . we better realize we need to start putting our funds into to what is truly needed, not the perks such as the arts, the bike lanes, and even sports . . . we are facing some tough times and better focus on mental health treatment and health. But we need people to put into those positions, and there is a shortage North American wide! We must learn to find ways to work smarter and do more with less.
There should have been some indicators, some alarms that went off with police and others with this person and governments must put in place tools for these front line workers so they can get help for those in need before events like this happen.
We can do better!