College football picks: Sooners, Cyclones, Utes among Power Four teams making rare visits to G5 foes

By Canadian Press on September 10, 2025.

With scheduling in college football scrutinized like never before, it’s hard to not notice the handful of games where Power Four teams play Group of Five opponents on the road.

Among Associated Press Top 25 teams this week, No. 13 Oklahoma is at Temple, No. 14 Iowa State visits Arkansas State and No. 20 Utah plays at Wyoming. Among the unranked, SMU travels to FBS newcomer Missouri State and Duke is at Tulane. Earlier this season, Mississippi State won at Southern Miss.

With the SEC next season joining the Big Ten and Big 12 in playing nine conference games, and the ACC probably following suit before long, there should be fewer P4 road games against G5 teams in coming years. There are 20 this season.

Athletic directors are now crafting future nonconference schedules with an eye toward creating the best path to the College Football Playoff, where strength of schedule now matters more. The common template is for P4 teams to play a home or away game against a P4 opponent, one G5 team at home and one Football Championship Subdivision opponent at home.

Power Four teams are 38-0 against the FCS this season but just 4-4 in road games against the Group of Five. Taking losses were Stanford (Hawaii), Northwestern (Tulane), UCLA (UNLV) and West Virginia (Ohio).

P4 teams hitting the road to play G5 teams should proceed with caution. The picks for this week’s FBS vs. FBS games, with lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

Ohio (plus 32 1/2) at No. 1 Ohio State

The defending MAC champion Bobcats knocked off the Big 12’s West Virginia at home and now go into the Horseshoe for the first time since 2010. Ohio QB Parker Navarro is a dangerous runner but was intercepted three times by West Virginia.

Pick: Ohio State 42-14.

Florida at No. 3 LSU (minus 9 1/2)

This isn’t a great time for the Gators to head to Death Valley. Billy Napier is back on the hot seat after he and his team made a mess of last week’s game and lost at home to South Florida. LSU’s defense has allowed two touchdowns and one field goal in 19 series.

Pick: LSU 31-21.

No. 4 Oregon (minus 27 1/2) at Northwestern

Even though it will be 9 a.m. on the Ducks’ body clocks at kickoff, that shouldn’t disrupt the offensive rhythm they established last week when they scored touchdowns on eight of their first 10 series against Oklahoma State.

Pick: Oregon 44-14.

No. 18 South Florida (plus 16 1/2) at No. 5 Miami

Bulls are the hottest thing going in college football and will be trying to become the first team since Miami in 1987 to open a season with three straight wins over ranked opponents. As good as QB Byrum Brown has been, he’ll be facing one of the best defenses in the country.

Pick: Miami 31-21.

No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee (plus 4 1/2)

The Volunteers have lost eight in a row to Georgia and the games haven’t been close. Joey Aguilar is a rising star and will win the battle against Gunner Stockton in a matchup of quarterbacks making their first starts in an SEC game.

Pick: Tennessee 24-20.

UTEP at No. 7 Texas (minus 41 1/2)

Arch Manning threw for four touchdowns against San Jose State, but he faced more pressure than he should have. UTEP is the national co-leader with 10 sacks, albeit against weak opponents.

Pick: Texas 45-3.

No. 16 Texas A&M (plus 6 1/2) at No. 8 Notre Dame

Notre Dame will want to get its run game going with Jeremiyah Love, something that didn’t happen in its loss to Miami. Mississippi State transfer WR Mario Craver has back-to-back 100-yard games for the Aggies and will be a handful for Notre Dame’s Leonard Moore-led secondary.

Pick: Notre Dame 23-20.

Western Michigan at No. 9 Illinois (minus 27 1/2)

Illini are riding momentum. They converted three Duke turnovers into touchdowns in the second half last week, the 45-19 win carried them to their highest AP ranking since 2001, and this week they announced a $100 million donation from an alumnus.

Pick: Illinois 38-7.

Vanderbilt (plus 5 1/2) at No. 11 South Carolina

Commodores are in payback mode. Last year’s 21-point defeat in Nashville was crushing because, after Vandy’s 6-3 start, it set off a three-game losing streak to end the regular season.

Pick: Vanderbilt 26-24.

No. 12 Clemson at Georgia Tech (plus 4 1/2)

An ACC opener on the road seems like a good place for Cade Klubnik and the Tigers to get some rhythm going. It won’t be easy. Haynes King, who sat out last week to recover from an injury, is sneaky good.

Pick: Georgia Tech 27-26.

No. 13 Oklahoma (minus 24 1/2) at Temple

Temple has given up two touchdowns and one field goal in two games. Don’t be fooled. The Owls haven’t seen a quarterback like John Mateer, who launched his Heisman Trophy campaign in earnest last week against Michigan.

Pick: Oklahoma 48-14.

No. 14 Iowa State (minus 21) at Arkansas State

This is the back end of a home-and-home series that was announced in 2014. Cyclones, who won 52-7 in Ames last year, are the highest-ranked opponent to play in Jonesboro. Forecast calls for temperature near 100 at kickoff.

Pick: Iowa State 35-10.

Arkansas at No. 17 Mississippi (minus 8 1/2)

Rebels RB Kewan Lacy has forced a nation-leading 21 missed tackles through two games, according to Pro Football Focus, and is coming off a 138-yard game against Kentucky. Razorbacks’ offense has decimated a pair of overmatched opponents.

Pick: Mississippi 35-24.

Wisconsin at No. 19 Alabama (minus 20 1/2)

The Crimson Tide, still smarting from their loss to Florida State, continue their redemption tour. A year ago, they beat Wisconsin 42-10 in Madison for the Badgers’ most lopsided since 2008. Wisconsin lost its starting quarterback on the first series of that game and now heads to Tuscaloosa with status of Billy Edwards Jr. up in air.

Pick: Alabama 35-10.

No. 20 Utah (minus 21 1/2) at Wyoming

Utes QB Devon Dampier has bad memories of the Cowboys. When he was at New Mexico last year, he ran for 207 yards and had a hand in four TDs but was strip-sacked late in the game and threw a pick-6 in the Lobos’ 49-45 loss.

Pick: Utah 45-21.

Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (minus 24 1/2)

Red Raiders have scored 67 and 62 points, making them the first FBS team to hang 60 in the first two games since Auburn in 2021. Can they do it again against an Oregon State defense that gave up 34 and 36 points in its first two games?

Pick: Texas Tech 56-27.

Central Michigan (plus 27 1/2) at No. 23 Michigan

Bryce Underwood and the Wolverines would like to get the bad taste of their loss at Oklahoma out of their mouths before they head to Nebraska to open Big Ten play next week. Chippewas are playing a third straight road game to start a season for first time since 1972.

Pick: Michigan 37-13.

South Alabama at No. 24 Auburn (minus 25 1/2)

Auburn is 17-0 against the Sun Belt Conference and leads the SEC in rushing offense and rushing defense. The Jaguars just let Tulane run for 241 yards against them.

Pick: Auburn 42-14.

Louisiana-Lafayette at No. 25 Missouri (minus 24 1/2)

Tigers had to erase deficits three times on their way to last week’s win over Kansas, the 10th time they’ve come from behind to win when trailing in the second half. That shouldn’t be an issue against a Ragin’ Cajuns team that lost its starting quarterback to injury in the season opener.

Pick: Missouri 48-14.

AP predictions scorecard

Last week: Straight-up — 15-1; Against spread — 8-8.

Season: Straight-up — 25-4; Against spread — 13-16.

____

Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

Eric Olson, The Associated Press