College football picks: 7 0T games in Week 9 most since 2017; margins tightening in conference play

By Canadian Press on October 29, 2025.

Fans were gifted the most free football in eight years last week when seven Bowl Subdivision games required overtime to decide a winner.

The last time there had been so many overtime games was Oct. 21, 2017, when there were eight.

This season’s 29 overtime games are most through a Week 9 since there were 33 in 2016.

Two Top 25 teams won in OT, Texas over Mississippi State and Virginia over North Carolina. The others were Western Kentucky over Louisiana Tech, Missouri State over New Mexico and Temple over Tulsa in one OT and Virginia Tech over California and Rice over UConn in double overtime.

The average winning margin in conference games so far this season is 14.5 points, on track to be the smallest since at least 2000, according to Sportradar. The Southeastern Conference’s margin is narrowest, at 8.5 points. The margin for games between Top 25 teams is 11 points, also trending toward the smallest since at least 2000.

The picks for this week’s games involving AP Top 25 teams, with lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State (plus 20 1/2)

The Nittany Lions’ lost season is about to get worse. QB Ethan Grunkemeyer, starting his second game in place of injured Drew Allar, faces a nation-leading defense that’s giving up fewer than 6 points per game.

Pick: Ohio State 37-10.

No. 2 Indiana (minus 21 1/2) at Maryland

The Hoosiers are only team in the country to have scored touchdowns on more than half of their offensive series (47 of 92). Terrapins lost their three October games by a total of 10 points.

Pick: Indiana 52-14.

No. 5 Georgia at Florida (plus 7 1/2)

Bulldogs have won four straight in the series, all by at least two touchdowns. Gators’ defense is good enough to make it close in first game since Billy Napier’s firing.

Pick: Georgia 27-22.

South Carolina at No. 7 Mississippi (minus 12 1/2)

Gamecocks in middle of three-game stretch against top-10 opponents, and no one would blame them for feeling demoralized after blowing late lead to Alabama.

Pick: Mississippi 34-17.

No. 8 Georgia Tech (minus 6 1/2) at North Carolina State

Haynes King and the Yellow Jackets keep their roll going against the Wolfpack, who have lost to four straight power-conference teams since a 3-0 start.

Pick: Georgia Tech 35-27.

No. 9 Vanderbilt (plus 1 1/2) at No. 20 Texas

Commodores’ defense held Missouri to a season low for yards, and Longhorns have uncertain QB situation with Arch Manning in concussion protocol at the start of the week.

Pick: Vanderbilt 24-21.

No. 10 Miami at SMU (plus 11)

This game looks ripe for a late turnover to decide it. SMU committed three at Wake Forest last week. Miami’s Carson Beck was intercepted four times by Louisville two weeks ago.

Pick: Miami 27-23.

No. 12 Notre Dame (minus 28 1/2) at Boston College

Jeremiyah Love, who ran for 228 yards against USC, must be licking his chops at the thought of going against a BC defense that just gave up 317 on the ground to Louisville.

Pick: Notre Dame 40-10.

No. 13 Texas Tech (minus 7 1/2) at Kansas State

Red Raiders QB Behren Morton returns, and just in time after Will Hammond went out with a torn ACL. Back-to-back solid wins have Wildcats feeling confident.

Pick: Texas Tech 33-24.

No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee (minus 3)

Sooners take their SEC-leading defense to Knoxville to face Joey Aguilar and the SEC’s top offense. OU has lost two of three since QB John Mateer came back from hand surgery.

Pick: Tennessee 31-27.

No. 15 Virginia (minus 3 1/2) at California

Cavaliers have won six straight, each of the last four by one score, and have 11 takeaways over their last five games. Three of their last four games have gone to overtime.

Pick: Virginia 30-26.

No. 16 Louisville at Virginia Tech (plus 10 1/2)

Cardinals didn’t pull away until late against Boston College at home and now visit rowdy Lane Stadium for the first time since 1991. Hokies have given up 99 points over last three games.

Pick: Louisville 38-31.

No. 17 Cincinnati (plus 7 1/2) at No. 24 Utah

Utes really need QB Devon Dampier healthy enough to play in their last regular-season game against a ranked opponent. Bearcats, winners of seven straight, must clamp down against run.

Pick: Utah 33-29.

Purdue at No. 21 Michigan (minus 21)

Big Ten rushing leader Justice Haynes should go over 100 yards for a seventh time in Wolverines’ last home game before the Nov. 28 showdown with Ohio State.

Pick: Michigan 29-7.

West Virginia (plus 14 1/2) at No. 22 Houston

Potential trap for Cougars, who are coming off a big road win at Arizona State. Mountaineers have lost five straight but like what they’re seeing in freshman QB Scotty Fox Jr.

Pick: Houston 32-21.

No. 23 Southern California at Nebraska (plus 7)

Chilly weather could slow down Trojans’ high-scoring offense a bit. Injuries on offensive line a concern for Cornhuskers, who have lost 28 straight against ranked opponents.

Pick: USC 26-23.

No. 25 Memphis (minus 14) at Rice

Tigers seemed to right the ship against South Florida after laying an egg at UAB.

Pick: Memphis 42-19.

Byes: No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 4 Alabama, No. 6 Oregon, No. 10 BYU, No. 19 Missouri.

AP predictions scorecard

Last week: Straight-up — 13-6; Against spread — 8-11.

Season: Straight-up — 118-33; Against spread — 72-79-1.

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Eric Olson, The Associated Press