Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida lead title odds for March Madness, bettors expect chalky results

By Canadian Press on March 15, 2026.

LAS VEGAS (AP) — The No. 1 seeds had a clear separation over the rest of the field when last year’s NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed, and it played out that way with all those teams reaching the Final Four.

This year’s top seeds — Duke, Arizona, Michigan and defending national champion Florida — are the favorites at BetMGM Sportsbook to win the national title.

Bruce Marshall, handicapper for WagerTalk/Gold Sheet, said he could see a couple of other teams breaking through to make the Final Four in Indianapolis.

“I don’t think we’ll see all of them (No. 1 seeds) in the Final Four,” Marshall said. “Maybe somebody sneaks through on the three-line. I’d watch Virginia possibly. They’ve got a pretty good potential road in their region. That’s Michigan’s region. I think Michigan is beatable now.”

That said, Marshall said it’s not that different from last season in which only a few teams have a realistic chance to win it all.

The NCAA selection committee also appeared to get most of the first-round matchups right, at least if going by the odds. There are only two favorites that are the lower-seeded teams, a pair of 8-9 matchups with Utah State favored by 2 1/2 points over Villanova and Iowa by the same number over Clemson.

“We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season,” said Patrick Berbert, college basketball trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field. From a betting standpoint, we’re projecting record engagement again.”

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AP March Madness bracket: https://apnews.com/hub/ncaa-mens-bracket and coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness

Mark Anderson, The Associated Press