Doctors have concerns about rising numbers of COVID cases in the area
By Letter to the Editor on March 31, 2021.
A Message from Southern Alberta Doctors:
We are writing to publicly express our concern about the recent increase in COVID-19 cases in Alberta, and specifically Lethbridge and the surrounding area. As of March 27th, we have 508 active cases in the City of Lethbridge, and the numbers have been generally increasing.
At the height of the second wave, we never reached or exceeded 300 active cases.
It is important to remember that COVID hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths always trail increases in cases by 2-3 weeks. ICU demand can stretch even longer due to the prolonged stays required by the seriously ill.
Although not widely made known, the Lethbridge ICU was at capacity during the tail end of the second wave, long after case numbers had been dropping for some time. It is a disease that is stubbornly persistent when it hits hard.
Alberta has seen a consistent case fatality rate of 1.4%, and a hospitalization rate of 4.4%. A simplified projection suggests that each day we add 50 cases, we can expect to need another 2-3 hospital beds within the next 2 weeks, occupied for 3-10 days depending on severity.
Our ICU also needs to cover severely ill patients in surrounding rural areas. As of last report, the south zone currently has the highest per capita rate of COVID hospitalizations in the province, and 10/14 ICU beds occupied by COVID patients.
We are all tired of the pandemic, the restrictions and the overwhelming impact it has had on our lives. Fortunately, with the vaccine rollout progressing the end is in sight, but we are not there yet.
We ask the public and government officials to recognize that individuals and the health care system are both still at risk. Southern Alberta has been fortunate thus far to have escaped much of the damage this virus has inflicted elsewhere around the world, and that is in large part thanks to the collective efforts of so many of our citizens who have made safe and smart choices to protect themselves and others.
The unprecedented lifestyle upheavals we have experienced over the past year are the reason we have escaped many of the dire projections of the past.
While we are fortunate that many of our most at risk of death seniors are now vaccinated, it is important to remember that the average age of a COVID ICU patient in Alberta is 58.
Those with the most severe baseline health and fragility are often not admitted to the ICU as intensive care can be too invasive and taxing for the body to meaningfully recover from.
The ICU is primarily a tool to keep alive those who are young and healthy enough to recover from a severe infection once it has run its course.
If the ICU is unable to meet demand, those who could otherwise be kept alive are at greater risk.
While evidence suggests the vaccines still prevent severe disease from the ever expanding variants of concern, there is still not enough data to know how well they prevent transmission. For that reason, even vaccinated people are currently still required to quarantine and miss work if exposed. This means we are still at risk of hospital staff shortages due to occupational or community exposure to COVID-19.
Furthermore, in Alberta, family physicians and many other community (non-hospital) based health care providers still have not been offered vaccination. They continue to work at risk in a community with rising transmission.
We do not wish to instill fear, but do advise ongoing caution, and wise decisions. We join our voices to those of other physicians encouraging the provincial government to do its part to get Alberta over the finish line without an even larger third wave, vaccinate all front-line health care workers, and prepare for the additional health care resources that may be required in the south zone.
Regardless of government action, we ask everyone to continue to do their part to protect themselves and others by taking efforts to limit community transmission.
If we continue to look for ways to be safe, rather than for loopholes and exceptions, we can protect lives and livelihoods over the next few months.
We know COVID-19 is most likely to spread where people are gathered in close proximity, unmasked, indoors for prolonged periods of time.
Making efforts to distance, wear a mask (2 or 3 layers are superior to 1), meet outdoors where possible, and limit time together where any of those is not possible will reduce the risk of transmission.
Limiting contact with individuals outside of a small cohort will also break community transmission chains.
Thank-you to all of you who have been doing your part this past year to combat COVID-19 and support the health care community.
We know it has not been easy. Please keep up the efforts to prevent our community and hospital from being overrun by this virus.
The vaccines are safe and are the best path back to normalcy. Please receive whichever one you are offered as soon as you are able.
Eligible health care workers have happily received theirs in large numbers, and those not yet eligible are anxious to as well.
The end is in sight, but let’s finish it properly and save lives.
With concern,
Dr. Tavish Barnes MD FRCPC (Critical Care)- Lethbridge
Dr. Parveen Boora MD FRCSC (General Surgery)- Lethbridge
Dr. Susan Byers MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Rhona Capisonda MD FRCPC (Pediatrics)- Chinook Pediatric Clinic
Dr. Tara Daley MD FRCSC (Obstetrics and Gynecology)- Lethbridge
Dr. Ehi Eyayi MD CCFP(EM) (Emergency Medicine)
Dr. Kevin Foster MD CCFP(EM) (Emergency Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Tony Gomes MD FRCSC (General Surgery)- Lethbridge
Dr. Charlotte Haig MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Nic Hamilton MD CCFP(EM) (Emergency Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Andrea Hargrove MD CCFP (Rural Family Medicine)- Taber
Dr. John Holland MD FRCPC (Pediatrics)- Chinook Pediatric Clinic
Dr. Cathy Horsman MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Medicine Hat
Dr. Rozemin Kizuk MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Peter Kwan MD CCFP(EM) (Emergency Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Jay Malach MD FRCSC (Obstetrics and Gynecology)- Lethbridge
Dr. Bilal Mir MD CCFP(EM) (Emergency Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Victor Onyebukwa MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Lee Oviatt MD FRCPC (Respiratory Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Paul Parks MD CCFP(EM) (Emergency Medicine)- Medicine Hat
Dr. Kristy Penner MD CCFP (Rural Family Medicine)- Crowsnest Pass
Dr. Karen Robertson MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Vanessa Rogers MD CCFP (Rural Family Medicine)- Crowsnest Pass
Dr. Hollis Roth MD CCFP (Palliative Care)- Lethbridge
Dr. Sharon Rowan MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Ghazala Saif MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Melissa Setiawan MD FRCPC (Anesthesia)- Lethbridge
Dr. Parisa Shamsi Shahrabadi MD CCFP (Rural Family Medicine)- Crowsnest Pass
Dr. Gregory Smith MD CCFP (Rural Family Medicine)- Raymond
Dr. Julie Smith MD CCFP(EM) FCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Sean Spence MD FRCPC (Critical Care)- Lethbridge
Dr. Adrienne Stedford MD CCFP (EM-PGY3)
Dr. Jessica Stephenson MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Michelle Thibodeau MD CCFP (Family and Hospital Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr Jessica van der Sloot MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Iffat Waheed MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Nicoelle Wanner MD CCFP (Family Medicine)- Medicine Hat
Dr. Dionne Walsh MD CCFP (Palliative Care)- Lethbridge
Dr. Adam Wiebe MD CCFP (Family and Hospital Medicine)- Lethbridge
Dr. Sean Wilde MD CCFP(EM) (Emergency Medicine)- Lethbridge
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