Letter arguing against COVID stats misses the mark
By Lethbridge Herald on September 28, 2022.
Editor:
With Jack Derksen’s letter to the editor two weeks ago arguing against my COVID statistics, and Jill Skriver’s letter Sept. 14, there are just so many mistakes and flaws in their positions that I have to respond.
Checking statistics this morning from Johns Hopkins University, Florida has 80,647 deaths for a population of 22 million for a rate of 3.66 deaths/1,000. Texas, with 90,577 deaths for 29.5 million, has a death rate of 3.07/1000.
Mississippi, with a population 2.93 million, has 12,853 COVID deaths, for a rate of 4.4 per 1,000.
Canada, with a population of 37 million has 44,347 COVID deaths, for a rate of 1.2/1,000.
The argument that Sweden did better with no lockdowns is outright wrong. 20,069 deaths for a population of 10.5 million = 1.9 deaths/1,000. The reason their death rate is not as bad as many U.S. states is that after they realized their herd immunity/no lockdown policy failed, Sweden became one of the most vaccinated countries in Europe.
There is no “natural immunity.” A work colleague thought that by being in great physical shape and taking vitamins he would be immune. After getting COVID he said “it was a hellish experience. I almost died.” Failed “cures”: Ivermectin works if you are a horse with worms. Drinking bleach borders on suicide. And early in the pandemic, some people would get a positive test for COVID but not show symptoms. They would then follow whatever quack cure was offered and say they were cured. They were not going to have symptoms, with or without the “cure.”
Now to surprise you, I will guess there won’t be lockdowns like 2020 and 2021, but not because of people ranting selfishly about their “freedom.” 90 per cent of Canadians are vaccinated.
On both sides of the border, (the USA still averages about 200 COVID deaths a day) the only people dying from COVID are the unvaccinated, and a very few people with multiple and serious non-COVID health issues.
The CDC in Atlanta discovered that after a full year study, 80 per cent of COVID cases came when people were indoors. Makes sense: put 20 people in a small room when two people have a bad flu and others will get the flu.
There are now medicines used in hospitals, introduced in January, that are used for serious cases that can save lives. We have learned that even something like improved ventilation in work environments will cut down infections.
By analysing sewage data we can see if infections in a community will be increasing. Before the lockdowns, social distancing and vaccines, one person would infect seven others, and anti vaxxers were raving about hoaxes, miracle cures and their rights, while spreading COVID and literally killing other people. Now with vaccinations as high as they are, the unvaccinated are only hurting themselves.
We have all suffered from COVID in many ways, but the basics of the government responses, backed by science, was correct: lockdowns, social distancing and masking and then continuing vaccinations.
Allan Wilson
Lethbridge
16-15
Sewage data? Where do you get your data? Sadly too much available “data” is compiled in a way that supports a mind set. Only 40% of covid deaths are vaccinated and 80% of population is vaccinated – – but which age groups are my stats? Comparing apples to oranges?
The UofA and the UofC have a joint project in which waste water samples are collected and analyzed for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. It’s actually pretty straight forward bio-chemistry for those with that training. The site can be accessed by following this link: https://covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca/
The other data source mentioned is based at Johns Hopkins University, the #9 ranked US university in 2022 and 24th in the world.
Well summarized. Though I doubt it will sway the anti vax, “pro freedom”, conspiracy driven disciples.
And to OS: Regarding your concern about getting data from “sewage”. Do you really not know? OK, I’ll bite. It is screening waste water to identify trends in the population of (in this case) COVID . Not perfect, but as a surveillance tool, it beats asking volunteers to roll up their sleeves and provide a blood sample – don’t you think?
( Polio trends have been monitored like this for years.)
No where has anyone been brave enough to list ages of those who died nor bothered to list pre existing conditions. It is just fear mongering 24/7. If anyone has these details would be more than happy to review and comment.
What difference does it make with age and preconditions? A death is a death.
You write “No where has anyone been brave enough to list ages of those who died.” Actually that’s not true. Those data are widely available from sources ranging from AHS to Health Canada to the WHO. Two excellent sources of data are http://www.statista.com and Our World in Data.
Joe Vipond, an ER physician at Rockyview Hosp in Calgary often posts statistics about covid in Alberta on his Twitter feed, numbers in age groups, etc…..might be worth checking out.
I appreciate Allan Wilson’s attempt to set the record straight. That’s what a good citizen should be trying to do. All the same, his attempt illustrates what appears to me to be 4 common misconceptions that need to be dispelled. I am sure that I too have misconceptions, and welcome good arguments and evidence-based corrections.
First, we cannot assume that “Covid death rate” has a clear meaning, and that this meaning is unchanged from one jurisdiction to another. Does it mean death with Covid (other factors being the primary cause), or from Covid? Does anyone who tests positive on a PCR test count as having Covid? How many cycles were used and is this the same number used in all jurisdictions? Were the numbers adjusted for false positives? Jurisdictions often count people first vaccinated in the first 14 days as “unvaccinated” because this is approximately when the vaccines kick in. So do some jurisdictions count people who die in the first 14 days after the first vaccination as unvaccinated? What are the time periods used to collect the data? Do these periods extend to a date prior to which vaccination uptake was low? Are these periods the same in all jurisdictions?
I haven’t done a deep dive into how Johns Hopkins has collected and produced its data, but given the foregoing questions, and more, it should be clear that sorting it all out is no easy matter. This brings me to the second misconception: that Covid death rate is a relevant measure. It wouldn’t be, would it, if the vaccinations kill more people by, say, myopericarditis than they save from Covid? The measure we need is all-cause mortality. We need to compare the death rate of those vaccinated against those unvaccinated. When we do this it turns out that the unvaccinated have a lower death rate than the boosted. To get a better grasp of some of the nuances of this you need to look at different age categories, and compare how many have died from all-causes according to the size of a population having a particular vaccination status. I won’t try to do this in this comment, but one place you might look for further understanding is to use the statistics of the UK’s Office of National Statistics, and you will find a guide to using these statistics for this purpose here: https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/far-fewer-all-cause-mortality-deaths.
Third, in the medical literature “natural immunity” does not mean having a great immune system. It means having been infected and recovered. This provokes your body to create antibodies that resist a reinfection. The questions surrounding natural immunity are: How strong is it? How quickly does it wane? Does it wane more quickly, or less, than immunity induced by vaccination? How does vaccination before getting infected affect natural immunity? How does it affect it after getting infected?
Fourth, Wilson’s assertion that “the only people dying from COVID are the unvaccinated” is false. When the vaccines first became available they were touted as completely preventing you from getting infected, but when the evidence emerged that they didn’t prevent getting infected at all, the line switched to “They will lower the numbers in the ICUs”. I am unfamiliar with what the statistics are to back up the claim about ICUs, but I will look into it.
“I haven’t done a deep dive into how Johns Hopkins has collected and produced its data….” “I am unfamiliar with what the statistics are….” 🙄
As the old adage says: Let’s not let data or evidence get in the way of an opinion.
We truly are in a world imagined by the Coen Brothers in their 1998 classic film in which the main character routinely conflates facts and evidence with opinion: “That’s just your opinion, Man.”
I guess you missed my point about the relevance of what the Covid death rates mean. Doing a deep dive is not worth doing when the relevant measure is all-cause mortality. You appear to be underestimating just how difficult some of those questions I asked are. Many of those questions can be bypassed going straight to the relevant measure. Avoiding getting lost in irrelevant data is not the same as conflating evidence with opinion.
Could you be any more arrogantly presumptuous? I did not miss your point, rather I chose to address certain of your comments and not others.
So, as you haven’t missed my point, would you say that we should do a deep dive into how Johns Hopkins has collected and produced its data, even though it doesn’t provide a relevant measure?
Would I say that we should do “a deep dive into how Johns Hopkins has collected?” Although I assume you are actually asking about how the Johns Hopkins data were collected, the answer is no.
Good answer.
“Good answer.” I’m humbled by your affirmation.
Andrew Andrew Andrew. They never said vaccines will prevent you from getting covid….they reduce the effects of the virus and could prevent a death…..that said there are those that have a health issue that are made worse from even a mild effect of the virus reduce by the vaccine.
Yes they did say that the vaccines would prevent you from getting infected. You might be right that I should not have used the word “completely”. Toward the end of this clip, Rachel Maddow says that the “virus stops with every vaccinated person”. Perhaps I should not have taken that so literally. See this and tell me what you think: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDtUWXOmLLg
I’ve been away doing the fall round up and am just checking in. One of the first things I read is this: “I appreciate Allan Wilson’s attempt to set the record straight. That’s what a good citizen should be trying to do.”
I’m very sorry, but I feel compelled of observe that you, Mr. Blair, appear to be a, as we said in the military, a “Sierra-India-Tango.” We would not follow those people, regardless of rank, into water.
While it’s too early to say conclusively, we may be on the cusp of the next COVID-19 spike. Over the week ending September 26 the number of ICU patients in hospital went from 843 to 980, a 16.3% increase week-over-week. The number of COVID-19 patients in ICU increased by 50%, going from 26 to 39 over a one-week period. Also of note, the percentage of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in ICU went from 8.7% to 18.6%.