Odds are we’re in for an interesting election campaign
By Lethbridge Herald on March 24, 2025.
POINT OF VIEW – Editor Scott Sakatch
I have to admit, when I read that Prime Minister Mark Carney was going to call an election this past Sunday, I didn’t imagine it would have much of an impact here. After all, conservative-leaning candidates have held the Lethbridge riding through every election since 1930. That’s almost four generations. This will be Rachael Thomas’s fourth election since first taking office in 2015, and she’s won every time. Before her, Rick Casson held the office for 14 years.
What I’m saying is that “stronghold” is a good word to describe the riding. I’m sure most long-time southern Albertans have heard the old joke that the Conservatives could run a bale of hay wrapped in blue string and it would win here.
So why am I writing this if I believe a Conservative win in the April 28 election is a foregone conclusion? Because, well…things just seem a little different to me this time around.
Let me say right off the bat that I’m not endorsing (or opposing) Rachel Thomas or Chris Spearman. I think they’re both good people who love our community and have the best of intentions. And I’m not saying that the Liberals have a better shot simply because they’ll be running a recognizable candidate this time around. I’m old enough to remember 2004, when Ken Nicol, longtime Lethbridge East MLA and former leader of the Alberta Liberal Party, lost in a landslide to incumbent Rick Casson, despite being well known and highly respected by southern Albertans. That said, it certainly doesn’t hurt that Spearman has a degree of fame and a long record of community involvement, either.
But this time it seems to me that Canadians are starting to see things a bit differently, thanks to the non-stop anti-Canadian rhetoric coming from Donald Trump’s White House. Tariffs are on everyone’s minds right now, and not just because they raise the spectre of a recession. I believe we’re more upset with the fact that our relationship with the U.S. has become hostile in recent months. And I believe the party leader who most successfully sells themselves as the anti-Trump crusader will win the election.
Why do I say that? If you look at the election odds released Monday by betting oddsmaker BetVictor Canada, the Liberals have become the slight odds-on favourites to win on April 28. Their odds of winning currently sit at 4/5, or about a 55.6-per-cent chance of winning, up from 7/1 odds just a few weeks ago under former Prime Minister Trudeau. Conversely, the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre have seen their odds tumble from 1/3 to 10/11, leaving them with a 52.4-per-cent chance of winning the most seats. In short, the election went from a significant advantage for the CPC to a virtual dead heat in just a handful of weeks.
And it certainly does’t help that Premier Danielle Smith went on right-wing Breitbart Radio and said she’d asked Trump to hold off on tariffs until after an election because they would have a negative impact on Poilievre’s chances of winning. The backlash to that has been swift and furious from both sides of the political aisle: the left has accused her of borderline treason while the right is eviscerating her for making it seem as if Poilievre is in favour of foreign election interference.
Locally, of course, the numbers aren’t nearly as close. The poll aggregator site 338canada.com has Thomas and the Conservatives at 58 per cent of the vote, followed by Liberals at 25 per cent and NDP at 14 per cent. The chances of Thomas winning are estimated at 99 per cent.
Then again, those numbers are based on data from a few months ago and don’t take into account the recent X factors, ie: the anti-Trump backlash and the addition of Spearman into the equation. That doesn’t mean the Liberals have a shot, but it doesn’t mean they don’t have a shot, either.
Full disclosure, I used to campaign for Greg Weadick when he was the Lethbridge West MLA, and I know from experience that both the provincial and federal conservative parties have powerful campaign machines in place: volunteers, databases, phone lists and more. I don’t know if the local Liberals have that or not, but I do know that the federal party has momentum on its side. Is that enough to win an election here? Stranger things have happened.
In closing, let me just say, as a veteran political hack, I wouldn’t bet a nickel on the outcome of this race federally. But I can absolutely guarantee that we’re all in for an interesting four weeks.
13-12
Chris Spearman former mayor, assistant manager at Palliser Distilleries, Grassy Mountain protestor,etc, Catholic school board member, etc vs Rachael Thomas-professional politican, no work experience, Danielle Smith supporter, CBC basher, far right of center views.
Yes “Stranger things have happened.”
Maybe this time the voters of Lethbridge Constituency get it right, Scott Sakatch.
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we now have a an option, between a little girl that knows her very limited place as a do as one is told by a black and white con party puppet, and a person who is wise enough to understand sustainability, and balanced approaches; there exists a grey area, but that requires wisdom to see and navigate. spearman at the very least recognises the health of our land cannot be compromised, and particularly not so as to enrich a decrepit, corrupt, tiny handful.