Trump’s Putin pivot sends oil prices sliding
By Lethbridge Herald on September 2, 2025.
Rashid Husain Syed
Troy Media
Oil markets are tumbling into bear territory, driven by a potent mix of geopolitical upheaval, weakening demand and surging supply. The latest shock came after U.S. President Donald Trump reversed his stance on the Russia–Ukraine war, easing pressure on Moscow and casting uncertainty across global energy markets.
Following a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Aug. 15, Trump abandoned his earlier demand for a ceasefire and is now calling for a full peace deal. This puts intense pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to concede land—something long demanded by Russia and now backed by the United States. Trump also dropped threats of further sanctions and signalled that countries such as China will not be penalized for importing Russian oil.
Oil prices slipped in early Asian trading on Aug. 18, as markets reacted to Trump’s diplomatic shift and easing concerns about supply disruptions. With Russian crude set to keep flowing freely and no new U.S. penalties on the table, the policy change signalled a loosening of pressure on Moscow. European leaders—including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—have expressed support for Ukraine, but market focus remains on Washington, not Brussels.
Crude futures are down more than 10 per cent this year and are trading in a narrow range. Trump’s escalating trade tensions, especially with China and India, rising output from OPEC+ members and global consumption trends are weighing heavily on prices.
Beyond Russia and Ukraine, broader trade tensions are also weighing on oil markets. India’s position adds further uncertainty. While Trump appears content to let China import Russian oil, India faces a more complex relationship. Trade talks with the U.S. have stalled, and a planned delegation visit has been deferred. At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking to stabilize ties with both Russia and China. Trump has not ruled out imposing a 25 per cent tariff on Indian exports starting Aug. 27, putting strain on a key buyer of Russian crude and a growing energy power in its own right.
At the same time, long-term demand signals are flashing warning lights. The International Energy Agency (IEA)—an energy watchdog for industrialized nations—is warning of a significant supply glut within months as both OPEC+ (the oil-producing alliance that includes Russia) and non-OPEC production continue to climb while demand lags.
The IEA’s August report cut global oil demand growth to 680,000 barrels per day in 2025—20,000 barrels below July’s estimate. Its 2026 projection is only slightly higher at 700,000 barrels per day. Since January, the agency has slashed its 2025 growth forecast by 350,000 barrels.
OPEC remains more optimistic. It left its 2025 growth forecast unchanged at 1.29 million barrels per day and expects fourth-quarter demand this year to reach 106.36 million barrels per day. For 2026, it nudged its estimate up to 106.52 million barrels. Despite that confidence, government forecasts point to continued weakness.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts Brent crude will fall to US$58 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2025, down from US$71 in July. It could drop further—to US$50, by early 2026.
For Canada, this is no sideshow. A prolonged price slump would hit Alberta’s resource-dependent economy hard, cutting into royalties, tax revenues and employment. That impact extends across the country, affecting GDP, transfer payments and public services supported by energy wealth.
Trump may view a hasty peace deal and hands-off oil policy as strategic wins, but for energy markets—and countries like Canada that rely on resource exports—the fallout could be lasting and painful.
Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.
© Troy Media
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And what of all of the Trump supporters in Alberta who love him so dearly…what will they do if/when they realize they aren’t being kissed while being you-know-whatted, even Danielle Smith.
Trump is a wild card . . . we all knew that! He may be scared of the alliance building between Russia, China, India, and his little fat friend from the DPRK. Iran, Turkey, and a few other countries are also in this alliance which continues to build as we face WW III.
Trump’s waffling only makes the US appear to be a paper tiger and he has damaged many friendships with his rapid foreign policy changes!
Canada can do little to defend itself after several decades of bankrupting our military. Our dedicated men and women are too few and do not have the military equipment to mount a defense if China or Russia attacks Canada! It would take years to build up our military and unlike the past world war, we do not have the technology in Canada in place to build the high tech weapons needed in a new world war. The military have the heart and will, but they are under-equipped!
Too many Canadians still fail to understand how close we are in losing our country, or the fact that by definition, WW III is already happening! They still think that will never happen! We are in the beginning stages of WW III inand some military experts already believe with 3-4 years Canada, the US and Europe will be fighting against the China, Russian, Indian, Turkish, Iranian Alliance in a world war!
No one is prepared, just like WW I and WW II. No one remembers the shortages in Canada for food, household goods, gasoline, etc.
In this tech world, no one really knows what to do without electricity, or turning on the water tap and often nothing coming out. In reality, I think people today will be much worst off because people in WW I and WW II knew how to feed themselves and survive better on their own.
They fail to acknowledge what is coming! Trump has already said he wouldn’t defend us!