No Water, No Oil, No Way: The Treaty Reality of Alberta Separation

By Lethbridge Herald on February 18, 2026.

Our First Nations neighbors may be the greatest allies to those opposed to “Wexit.” To understand why, one must look past the political rallies and into the courtrooms.

The battle for Alberta’s independence will not be won or lost solely in a voting booth; it will be fought in the judiciary. On December 5, 2025, Justice Colin Feasby ruled that a citizen-led initiative for a separation referendum was unconstitutional. While the provincial government has since attempted to bypass such hurdles through legislative amendments, Justice Feasby’s core reasoning remains a massive legal roadblock: any move toward separation would contravene constitutional protections, specifically Indigenous treaty rights.

Because these treaties are legally binding agreements with the federal Crown, numerous First Nations are preparing for a long legal battle. They have the law on their side. There are 48 First Nations in Alberta overseeing 138 reserves, with treaty territories blanketing the entire province. Additionally, eight Metis settlements hold 1.25 million acres in the north. While Metis contracts were originally with the province, they now hold binding Constitutional rights. These nations have been clear: they did not sign treaties with a provincial government, but with the Government of Canada. If Alberta leaves, they have no intention of going with it.

If a legal “divorce” from Canada were to proceed, the map of a “Sovereign Alberta” would likely look like a piece of Swiss cheese. The First Nations are opposed to independence, and their lands, much like National Parks, are federal jurisdictions. This creates a logistical and economic nightmare for the separatist movement.

What might happen?

Treaty 8 encompasses nearly all of Northern Alberta, which contains the lion’s share of the province’s heavy oil and natural gas reserves. Recent rulings, such as the Yahey decision in B.C., have already proven that First Nations can halt industrial development if it infringes upon their ability to hunt, fish, and maintain their way of life.

In a separation scenario, Treaty 8 nations could assert that the provincial government has forfeited its right to manage these resources by breaking the existing Crown relationship. We could see a “Resource Veto,” where the very wealth meant to fund an independent Alberta is locked behind a legal wall. Without the cooperation of Treaty 8, the economic engine of a new Alberta republic would effectively seize up before it even starts.

While oil is the headline in the North, water is the story in the South. The Blackfoot Confederacy (the Siksika, Kainai or Blood Tribe, and Piikani Nations) sits at the literal headwaters of southern Alberta’s economy.

Under the “Winters Doctrine,” a legal principle often cited in Indigenous water claims, when land was reserved for First Nations, the water needed to make that land productive was reserved by implication. The Confederacy asserts they never surrendered these rights in 1877. In an independent Alberta, these nations could exercise “Senior Priority” over the Oldman and St. Mary’s Rivers, with seismic consequences.

The area surrounding Lethbridge is the most intensive agricultural region in Canada. This industry relies entirely on irrigation districts where the infrastructure, such as dams, weirs, and canals, sits on or passes through Treaty 7 land. In a separation crisis, the Confederacy could legally challenge the province’s right to divert water. A permanent reduction in water allocation would collapse the value of irrigated land overnight, potentially bankrupting the multi-generational farming operations that sustain the regional economy.

And the City of Lethbridge draws its municipal water from the Oldman River. If the Kainai or Piikani Nations demand their full share of the river flow to support their own growing populations and agricultural projects, Lethbridge could find itself at the bottom of the priority list. A sovereign Alberta might find itself in the impossible position of having to “buy back” water for its own citizens from a Nation that refuses to recognize the new state’s authority.

Proponents of Wexit argue for “taking back control,” but they are essentially asking to break a contract they didn’t sign. The First Nations are the original stakeholders of this land. They’ve been here for thousands of years.  And these Nations state that they did not cede their land. If they choose to remain with Canada, they take the oil, the gas, and the water with them.

The First Nations, their treaty rights and the courts may be the greatest battles fought by the separatists.

Ken Moore is a past News Director at CFAC Television and was a former news reporter who covered municipal and provincial politics