By Letter to the Editor on November 18, 2020.
How did I correctly predict the results of the U.S. election … at Christmas?
1. Democrats were motivated by their disgust and hatred of Donald Trump, and proved that in the 2018 mid-term elections.
2. Democrats only had to flip back three states (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) to win.
3. There was no evidence, ever, that Trump would take a blue state from the 2016 election and turn it red.
4. There was no evidence, ever, that Donald Trump would suddenly become reasonable and diplomatic. And after Christmas, when the worst health crisis in 100 years came in March, he responded predictably and poorly.
All those points could be derived from reputable media sources like the Economist magazine and the polling site 538 (they publish all major polls, even from sites friendly to Trump). Although the polls were generally off in terms of the degree of Biden’s victory, they were accurate, week after week. There were seven swing states where Biden usually or always had polling leads, and Biden could be expected to win four and probably five of those seven states.
I have many Facebook “friends” of all political positions. The Trump supporters totally refused to believe any of my points above; they were lost in the “Fox and Friends” conspiracy tunnel. Even some Trump opponents were so paranoid they were spooked that Trump would pull off some kind of evil magic. But on Friday, Nov. 6 rational strategy, grassroots energy supported by strong fundraising, and perceived empathy and hope won a clear victory.
And Donald Trump will be sent to the ash heap of history, a one-term president, a vain, dangerous and foolish man who could not beat a 78-year-old career politician.